Sunday, March 8, 2009

Doomed to Repeat

 The modern-day spin doctors have hit the NY Times. The oft-argued, "most venerated" news publication in the U.S. is calling the current economic malaise the Great Recession. Regardless of whether or not the world will ever suffer an economic calamity quite like the Great Depression of the 1930's, this global downturn certainly has eerie parallels

 Like the Great Depression, our current predicament is the product of loose oversight and over-extended credit. The post-World War I boom of the 1920's affected many sections of American life. Groups who had rarely seen credit extended to them (farmers, small business owners) saw access to easy money. In the 2000s the targeted groups were the lower-middle class, immigrants and the all around fiscally irresponsible. In both instances those issuing the credit relied on the short-sighted hope that the economy would remain strong, stable and booming. In the end the crash of both 1929 and 2009 have changed the United States. And as in 1929, as the US goes, so goes the world. Economies all over the world who relied on US consumerism are now shuddering to a halt. 

  Both President Hoover and President Bush were men who had made their private fortunes before entering the White House and saw little value in the government regulating Big Business.  Prices rose, as did income, and everyone rushed to cash in. If that doesn't sound like Gatsby's  1920's West Egg then I don't know what does.

 Like his predecessor, President Bush did too little, too late to stem the downturn. And like Hoover's successor, FDR; Bush's successor, Obama is promising to do everything in his power to make sure "The only thing Americans have to fear is fear itself."

 There are other more startling and subtle similarities in the Great Recession and the Great Depression. In the 1930's and 1940's America was transformed from an agrarian society into the industrial society we are today. The foreclosures on farmers and coinciding Dust Bowl insured that industry would never again be the same. Leading economists today are contending that the same is happening in the manufacturing industry, auto industry and retail industry. 

 For those still burying their heads in the sand, the Great Recession is changing the way Americans are doing business. Fleeting are the days of high credit card bills, McMansions and the best new thing, regardless of the cost. Americans are cutting back, saving more and going without. Layaway is back (it was born of the Great Depression), and people are turning to the barter system. Instead of selling your house on the market these days, post your house on Craigslist. Like in the 1930s people are looking for any job that will put food on their tables, even if they pay a fraction of what the job seeker was making. Even Hollywood is becoming "cost conscious" and toning down their awards ceremonies and after parties. Even Oprah didn't give away her favorite things this year, but rather gave families tips on how to have fun for less than $100.  
 There was more to the Great Depression than just the money. The Great Depression changed the mindset of America, that's part of why it was so "great". My grandmother was born in May 1929, roughly 5 months before the bottom fell out of the market. By the time she was 10, America was barely undergoing an economic recovery. For the rest of her life she rarely threw things away, used a credit card or spent frivolously. Memories of not having much to throw away were never far from her mind. 

While it's too early to see how this generation growing up in the Great Recession will behave because of the times in which they lived, I know that like my great-grandparents my generation will never again feel as secure in their wealth as they did. 

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